Irish Unification Plebiscite Must Not Turn Into 'A Sequel to Brexit', Commentators Warn

A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.

Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."